Fuel subsidy removal and household welfare during energy transition: Evidence from Southwest Nigeria

Main Article Content

Aduralere O Oyelade
Afeez Taiwo Tella

Abstract

The removal of fuel subsidy is a policy lever employed to facilitate the development of cleaner and more efficient energy systems. However, its legitimacy depends upon social sustainability outcomes. The present study examined the relationship between the removal of fuel subsidy and household welfare during the energy transition. The investigation utilized a sample size of 3,600 sample sizes from the six states in the region, thereby providing robust evidence from Southwest Nigeria. The present study demonstrates that subsidy removal has a detrimental impact on household welfare through both direct price effects and indirect inflation transmitted via transportation expenses. These welfare impacts indicate that sustainability transitions require ‘just transition’ measures, such as targeted compensation, to reduce adverse effects on vulnerable households while energy-market reforms proceed.

Article Details

Section
Articles

References

1. A. Hakim, R. Roslan, R. Ismail and N. A. Abdul Razak, Fuel subsidy rationalisation: The perils of the middle class in Malaysia, J. Ekon. Malays. 48 (2014) 83–97.

2. O. Adeniran, Effects of fuel subsidy on transport costs and transport rates in Nigeria, J. Energy Technol. Policy 6 (2016) 2224–3232.

3. J. Adeoti, L. Chete, C. Beaton and K. Clarke, Compensation mechanisms for fuel subsidy removal in Nigeria, (2016).

4. A. Agboje, Implication of switching fuel subsidy on households welfare in Nigeria, (2018).

5. A. Agboje, Macroeconomic and welfare effects of alternative fuel subsidy switch and policy draw-backs in Nigeria, J. Sustain. Dev. Stud. 15 (2022).

6. W. Clements, M. J. M. Mariano and G. Verikios, Estimating the linear expenditure system with cross-sectional data, Univ. West. Aust. Dep. Econ. Econ. Discuss./Work. Pap. 20 (2020).

7. E. F. A. Cooke, S. Hague, L. Tiberti, J. Cockburn and A.-R. El Lahga, Estimating the impact on poverty of Ghana’s fuel subsidy reform and a mitigating response, J. Dev. Eff. 8 (2016) 105–128.

8. P. De Boer and R. Paap, Testing non-nested demand relations: linear expenditure system versus indirect addilog, Stat. Neerl. 63 (2009) 368–384.

9. F. J. A. Del Granado, D. Coady and R. Gillingham, The unequal benefits of fuel subsidies: A review of evidence for developing countries, World Dev. 40 (2012) 2234–2248.

10. E. Erdogdu, The impact of power market reforms on electricity price-cost margins and cross-subsidy levels: A cross country panel data analysis, Energy Policy 39 (2011) 1080–1092.

11. O. Evans, I. Nwaogwugwu, O. Vincent, O. Wale-Awe, E. Mesagan and T. Ojapinwa, The socio-economics of the 2023 fuel subsidy removal in Nigeria, (2023) 12–32.

12. M. O. Gidigbi and K. M. Bello, Petroleum subsidy reduction and poverty in Nigeria: A choice between maintaining the subsidy or providing infrastructural services equivalent to the deadweight loss, Asian Dev. Perspect. 11 (2020) 70–81.

13. F. Hair Jr, G. T. M. Hult, C. M. Ringle, M. Sarstedt, N. P. Danks, S. Ray, J. F. Hair et al., An introduction to structural equation modeling, Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) Using R: A Workbook (2021) 1–29.

14. H. E. Inegbedion, E. Inegbedion, E. Obadiaru and A. Asaleye, Petroleum subsidy withdrawal, fuel price hikes and the Nigerian economy, Int. J. Energy Econ. Policy 10 (2020) 258–265.

15. R. B. Kline, Principles and practice of structural equation modeling, Guilford Publications, 2023.

16. G. Marshall and L. Jonker, An introduction to descriptive statistics: A review and practical guide, Radiography 16 (2010) e1–e7.

17. N. McCulloch, T. Moerenhout and J. Yang, Fuel subsidy reform and the social contract in Nigeria: A micro-economic analysis, Energy Policy 156 (2021) 112336.

18. S. Menard, Applied logistic regression analysis, SAGE Publications, 2001.

19. A. B. Mohammed, F. F. Ahmed and A. N. Adedeji, Assessment of impact of fuel subsidy removal on socio-economic characteristics: A survey of households in Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria, J. Bus. Econ. Dev. 5 (2020) 10.

20. R. O. Mueller and G. R. Hancock, Structural equation modeling, in: The Reviewer’s Guide to Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, Routledge, 2018, pp. 445–456.

21. National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria Living Standards Survey, (2020).

22. W. L. Neuman, Social research methods: Qualitative and quantitative approaches (7th ed.), Pearson, 2014.

23. Nwafor, K. Ogujiuba and R. Asogwa, Does subsidy removal hurt the poor? Evidence from computable general equilibrium analysis, Afr. Inst. Appl. Econ. (2006) 1–34.

24. S. F. Okereke, Impact of petroleum subsidy removal on government expenditure in Nigeria, Int. J. Humanit. Soc. Sci. Invent. 6 (2017) 75–84.

25. O. Omitogun, A. E. Longe, S. Muhammad and I. J. Adekomi, Environmental impact of economic growth and fuel subsidy in Nigeria, Econ. Insights-Trends Chall. 1 (2021).

26. Z. Onyeizugbe and E. M. Onwuka, Fuel subsidy removal as an imperative for enhancing business development in Nigeria, VSRD Int. J. Bus. Manage. Res. 2 (2012) 454–461.

27. A. Raji, Fuel subsidy removal and the lives of rural dwellers in Nigeria, Unpublished Thesis, 2018.

28. A. A. Razak, R. Ismail and R. A. Hakim, Is there a case for fuel subsidy removal in Malaysia?, J. Econ. Financial Stud. 2 (2014) 01–13.

29. Soile and X. Mu, Who benefit most from fuel subsidies? Evidence from Nigeria, Energy Policy 87 (2015) 314–324.

30. Soile, H. Tsaku and B. Musa-Yar'Adua, The impact of gasoline subsidy removal on the transportation sector in Nigeria, Am. J. Energy Res. 2 (2014) 60–66.

31. P. Tarka, An overview of structural equation modeling: its beginnings, historical development, usefulness and controversies in the social sciences, Qual. Quant. 52 (2018) 313–354.

32. G. Umeji and E. Eleanya, Assessing the impact of fuel subsidy removal in Nigeria on the poor in the COVID-19 era, SERBD-Int. J. Multidiscip. Sci. (2021).

33. Uzonwanne, U. Ezenekwe and P. Iregbenu, Fuel subsidy removal and the Nigerian economy, Aust. J. Bus. Manage. Res. 5 (2015).

34. R. White, A student's guide to statistics for analysis of cross-tabulations, World Cult. 14 (2004).

35. T. Widodo, Household’s welfare impact of fuel subsidy removal, (2012).